A new study predicts global biofuel production will surge nearly 70% by 2030, driven by stricter blending mandates in Brazil, the U.S. and other producers.

Global biofuel output could rise almost 70% by 2030 from 2025 levels, a study released Tuesday said.

The analysis examined production trends from 2020 to 2025 and projected future growth under a range of policy scenarios. It found that mandatory blending requirements in several major producing nations are the primary catalyst for the expected increase.

Blending mandates expand across continents

Countries that have announced tighter mandates include Brazil, the United States, the European Union, India and South Africa. Each plans to raise the minimum share of biofuels in transport fuels by at least 5 percentage points over the next five years.

Energy crisis after Iran war fuels policy shift

In 2024, the war between Iran and its regional adversaries disrupted crude‑oil supplies and drove global fuel prices to historic highs. Governments responded by accelerating renewable‑fuel policies to reduce reliance on volatile oil markets.

Analysts note that the surge in biofuel production aligns with broader climate‑change mitigation goals. "Higher blending targets help diversify energy sources and cut transport‑sector emissions," said Dr. Lina Patel, a senior energy analyst who reviewed the study. "If the projected growth materializes, biofuels could account for a sizable share of the world's renewable‑energy mix by the end of the decade."

Despite the optimistic outlook, the report cautions that supply‑chain constraints and land‑use concerns could temper growth if not addressed. It recommends coordinated investment in feedstock development and sustainable sourcing standards.

Policymakers in oil‑importing nations are watching the trend closely, as increased biofuel use may lessen exposure to future geopolitical shocks in the petroleum market.